An appraisal of climatic change impact on banana and plantain pests in Cuba
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Abstract
Banana and plantains are important crops in economic terms as well as for food sustainability in Cuba. Musa spp. Pests limit yields and causes rising of production costs. With the models ECHAM5/MPI, HADCM3 and the Climatic Regional Modelling System PRECIS where estimated the anomalies of daily maximal, media and minimal temperature, of relative humidity (RH) and rain for A2 and B2 sceneries for the years 2030 and 2060 in 24 sites of the country. The expected sceneries A2 and B2 for 2030 and 2060, comprise temperatures anomalies in the range of +2.31 to +2.8 oC, reduction of median RH, a lengthiness of dry season with periods of drought and reduction of annual rainfall. Under this sceneries, temperature will be more favorable to black Sigatoka disease (BSD) development between December and March, when historically low temperatures were usually unfavorable to the disease in most of sites. Simultaneously, lower RH and rains will reduce the favorable periods for BSD and other foliar plant pathogens. Incidence of Colletotrichum musae, F. semitectum and Corynespora torulosa and other fungal plant pathogens dependent of high RH and rains for sporulation, dispersal and infection will have less favorable conditions for development, even when their incidence are more related to pre and postharvest cultural practices than to climatic changes. Temperatures will be more favorable to Pentalonia nigronervosa, Aphis gossypii and Myzus persicae, although due to drier conditions in general aphids and pseudoccocids vectors of CMV and BSV respectively will have better conditions to viruses dispersal and transmission. Dry conditions will contribute to increment Frankliniella spp., Chaetanophothrips spp., as well as Tetranychus tumidus and Raoiella indica mite’s populations and their damages.
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